Winter Solstice - thoughts about the previous months from Managing Partner Ron Richardson:
It was cold, clear, and a beautiful night to be anywhere but a roadside park in Leadville, Colorado. Earlier that evening, I pledged to be somewhere in the mountains for the holidays. That was before I stopped at the roadside park for the use of the facilities. It never occurred to me that it could be this cold. My guess? The temperature was in the single digits. At least, there was no wind.
That particular night took place sometime in the mid-1990s. The sky was perfectly clear. Something felt different about that night.
I later learned that it was the Winter Solstice. I felt a bit more optimistic. The thought of it being connected to the solstice never occurred to me. The thought that did occur, was how magnificent the universe is to separate the seasons in conjunction with the sun. To me, the solstice represented the promise of longer days, spring, summer and even autumn. The shortest day heralds the winter. This also marks the beginning of longer days to come.
The winter solstice is said to be symbolic of new beginnings, rebirth. I am all for that. We all have things we would like to begin again. The symbolic death and rebirth of the sun. The solstice also marks the day the sun is the lowest in the southern sky. The days begin to get longer by two minutes per day. In mid-February, the increase expands to 3 minutes a day. Pretty cool stuff.
Where is this taking us? Oh yeah, the economy!
There are patterns in the economy as well. They are not as clearly defined. In fact, they are very difficult to determine. They do occur, though often it is less perceivable than two minutes of additional daylight, even to the trained eye.
Today we saw a big uptick in the continuing claims for unemployment. It was the highest in two years. Remember, the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. Full employment is defined as less than 4% unemployed. Stable inflation is defined as 2% or less. Tough targets. I believe we are on the way to both. The trick will be not to overshoot one, or both. We will see.
It would be nice if the economy were as predictable as the seasons. That is the challenge. That is also the fun - much liking walking to the facilities in the cold in the mid 1990s trying to guess the temperature. It may be fun when you are correct. It’s still cold!
Here’s to the universe, and the perfect timing of the seasons. Thanks for the promise of the coming seasons.
Enjoy the day....r2
